Powell to close out Q3, China stocks boom 8%
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
The final day of another punchy quarter for U.S. stocks has proven a more volatile affair overseas: China's stellar stock .CSI300 recovery has added another whopping 8% pre-holiday, while Tokyo's .N225 swoon on the new Japanese prime minister jarred in the other direction.
For Wall Street, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tees up in Nashville later to give his latest steer on the unfolding Fed easing cycle, with soothing August inflation numbers as a welcome backdrop. The rest of the week looks set to be dominated by soundings on the labor market, the upcoming earnings season and the start of the election-edged final quarter.
China, however, continues to hold global investors in thrall after last week's sweeping series of monetary stimuli and real estate and stock market props. The hyperactive policy scramble kept going over the weekend, with China's central bank on Sunday telling banks to lower mortgage rates for existing home loans before the end of October.
And so on the final trading session before mainland markets close for a four-day national holiday, China's benchmark stock indexes <.CSI300> boomed by more than 8% - making it the best single day in 16 years and the best month in more than a decade.
The cumulative surge over the past week has now wiped out both year-to-date and 12-month losses.
What for some investors appears like a "whatever it takes" policymaking urgency in Beijing may well be necessary, if dour business survey readings for September were anything to go by.
And the yuan CNH=, CNY=, which had also been lifted by the credit easing and wider stimulus last week, fell back amid repeated reports of dollar buying by state banks.
By contrast and perhaps partly reflecting renewed appetite for Chinese stocks, Japan's Nikkei plunged almost 5% on the final day of Q3, with investors seemingly wary of the new prime minister - perceived monetary policy hawk Shigeru Ishiba - and his call for an October election.
The yen JPY= edged lower by the end of the day - amid some confusion about Ishiba's current stance.
Ishiba has been critical of the Bank of Japan's extraordinary stimulus of the previous decade, and his reported choice for finance minister, Katsunobu Kato, called for continued normalisation of monetary policy in May.
However, Ishiba told national broadcaster NHK at the weekend that "monetary policy must remain accommodative as a trend given current economic conditions".
In Europe, the focus was on the latest sub-target inflation numbers from Germany - adding to similar disinflation in France and Spain - as well as a worrying manufacturing slump and a gathering storm in the auto sector.
A win for the Nazi-rooted Freedom Party in Austria's weekend parliamentary elections darkened the mood.
European stock benchmarks .STOXXE lost almost 1%, although the euro EUR= edged higher against a generally weaker dollar.
Auto shares .SXAP fell 3% after Volkswagen VOWG_p.DE compounded recent woes by cutting its 2024 guidance while Stellantis STLAM.MI slumped 8% after the French-Italian carmaker slashed annual guidance, citing a worsening of global industry dynamics.
The horizon for the sector will hinge in part on the success of the Chinese stimulus alongside any domestic recovery.
The upshot for U.S. markets is that stock futures ESc1 are marginally in the red ahead of Monday's bell, after a quarter that's seen new record highs for the S&P500 .SX but a rare outperformance of small caps .RUT and the equal-weighted S&P .EWGSPC as interest rates start to tumble.
With the election coming on to the three-month yearend radar, the VIX volatility gauge .VIX popped higher.
U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR nudged up too ahead of Powell's set piece later.
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
* Dallas Fed September manufacturing survey, Chicago Sept PMI
* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks in Nashville, Fed Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks to European Parliament; Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene speaks
* US corporate earnings: Carnival, Precision Optics, Spectra Systems, EnerSys, Repositrak
* US Treasury sells, 3-month, 6-month bills
China & Hong Kong stocks rocket https://reut.rs/3TQvYjX
Dour China business surveys for Sept https://reut.rs/4elvtGN
US GDP growth topping 3%, with inflation on target https://tmsnrt.rs/3TPm7uZ
US inflation gauges https://reut.rs/3zBa39x
Equal-weighted S&P500 shrinks the gap https://reut.rs/3ZIUYxk
By Mike Dolan, editing by Mark Heinrich
mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com
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إخلاء المسؤولية: تتيح كيانات XM Group خدمة تنفيذية فقط والدخول إلى منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت، مما يسمح للشخص بمشاهدة و/أو استخدام المحتوى المتاح على موقع الويب أو عن طريقه، وهذا المحتوى لا يراد به التغيير أو التوسع عن ذلك. يخضع هذا الدخول والاستخدام دائماً لما يلي: (1) الشروط والأحكام؛ (2) تحذيرات المخاطر؛ (3) إخلاء المسؤولية الكامل. لذلك يُقدم هذا المحتوى على أنه ليس أكثر من معلومات عامة. تحديداً، يرجى الانتباه إلى أن المحتوى المتاح على منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت ليس طلباً أو عرضاً لدخول أي معاملات في الأسواق المالية. التداول في أي سوق مالي به مخاطرة عالية برأس مالك.
جميع المواد المنشورة على منصة تداولنا مخصصة للأغراض التعليمية/المعلوماتية فقط ولا تحتوي - ولا ينبغي اعتبار أنها تحتوي - على نصائح أو توصيات مالية أو ضريبية أو تجارية، أو سجلاً لأسعار تداولنا، أو عرضاً أو طلباً لأي معاملة في أي صكوك مالية أو عروض ترويجية مالية لا داعي لها.
أي محتوى تابع للغير بالإضافة إلى المحتوى الذي أعدته XM، مثل الآراء، والأخبار، والأبحاث، والتحليلات والأسعار وغيرها من المعلومات أو روابط مواقع تابعة للغير وواردة في هذا الموقع تُقدم لك "كما هي"، كتعليق عام على السوق ولا تعتبر نصيحة استثمارية. يجب ألا يُفسر أي محتوى على أنه بحث استثماري، وأن تلاحظ وتقبل أن المحتوى غير مُعدٍ وفقاً للمتطلبات القانونية المصممة لتعزيز استقلالية البحث الاستثماري، وبالتالي، فهو بمثابة تواصل تسويقي بموجب القوانين واللوائح ذات الصلة. فضلاً تأكد من أنك قد قرأت وفهمت الإخطار بالبحوث الاستثمارية غير المستقلة والتحذير من مخاطر المعلومات السابقة، والذي يمكنك الاطلاع عليه هنا.
