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USDJPY


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Week Ahead – ECB poised to cut again, US CPI to get final say on size of Fed cut

ECB is expected to ease again, but will it be another ‘hawkish cut’? US CPI report will be the last inflation update before September FOMC UK monthly data flurry begins with employment and GDP numbers ECB to cut rates for second time The European Central Bank’s carefully choreographed rate-cutting cycle got off to an awkward start in June after last-minute data upsets.
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Daily Comment – Investors lock gaze on NFP data

Dollar slides as data offer little respite to concerned investors NFP to accelerate somewhat, but PMI surveys pose downside risks S&P 500 and Dow Jones end in red ahead of the job numbers Gold rebounds, approaches record high; oil stabilizes Data fail to alleviate investors’ worries The dollar traded lower against all of its major counterparts on Thursday as the boost received by the better-than-expected initial jobless claims and the improving ISM non-manufacturing PMI
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Quick Brief – US ADP numbers surprise to the downside

ADP employment prints at 99k, missing expectations Odds of 50bps Fed rate cut rise again USDJPY declines considerably The US ADP employment data published today revealed a lower-than-expected rise in private sector jobs; it rose to 99k from a revised 111k previously and is below the forecast of 145k. This reading is the lowest since 2021 and could have major implications for the dollar, the stock market and the Federal Reserve's possible rate decision.
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Daily Comment – Equities weakness lingers as focus remains on US data

Equities remain on the back foot as key US data on the menu today ADP, jobless claims and ISM Services could prove market moving Dollar’s mixed performance continues, yen benefits OPEC+ production rumours fail to push oil prices higher US data releases in the spotlight Equity markets continue to exhibit a rather unexpected fragility as second tier data like Wednesday’s JOLTs job openings resulted in another negative session in most stock indices around the globe.
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Stocks could suffer after the September Fed rate cut

US labour market data to determine the size of the first Fed rate cut History points to an increased possibility of a 50bps move Analysis reveals sizeable equities’ weakness after the initial cut Following Fed Chairman Powell's appearance at the Jackson Hole Symposium and this indirect announcement of the much-discussed Fed rate cut, the market is counting down to the September 18 meeting.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY slips beneath 145.00

USDJPY holds in neutral-to-bearish territory Momentum oscillators are mixed USDJPY is retreating from the 147.15 resistance level and the 145.00 round number, holding beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 161.94 to 141.60 at 147.15 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 146.00. The technical oscillators suggest contradictory signs.
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Daily Comment – Wall Street tumbles amid September blues

Yen and franc gain, aussie the main loser Wall Street tumbles on risk-off September start ISM mfg. PMI rekindles economic concerns Oil collapses on prospect of Libyan accord Risk aversion prevails The US dollar outperformed most of its major counterparts on Tuesday, losing ground only versus the traditional safe havens such as the yen and the franc.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY trapped in a gloomy trajectory

USDJPY drifts back below 147.00 area; tests support trendline Technical picture signals bearish trend continuation   USDJPY was unable to maintain its strength on Tuesday despite briefly surpassing the 147.00 level, as the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) caused a retreat towards the support trendline from July 2023 at 144.75. The technical indicators cannot guarantee an immediate bullish rotation as the RSI has changed direction to the downside before reaching its 50 neutr
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Volatility eases across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops as market prepares for an action-packed week Volatility in commodities crashes to new lows apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much lower volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is preparing for this week’s US labour market data releases that could play a key role in determining the size of the imminent rate cut by the Fed.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD

USDJPY aims to break above 20-SMA ahead of the NFP report. Will it be successful this time? USDCAD stops at 5-month low as the focus turns to the BoC rate decision AUDUSD hangs near 8-month high; Australian GDP is on the calendar   Nonfarm payrolls, ISM PMIs --> USDJPY USDJPY is looking for fresh buying as it is still striving for a close above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and beyond the 146.00 number.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY in bullish mode in very short-term

USDJPY rises above downtrend line MACD stands well above its trigger line 20- and 50-period SMAs post bullish cross USDJPY advanced considerably in the previous 4-hour session, surpassing the 146.50 barricade. Also, the 20- and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs) posted a bullish crossover, and the technical oscillators are holding well above their mid-levels.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY heads up, but for how long?

USDJPY rebounds off 143.40 Remains well below the 200-day SMA Momentum oscillators move higher USDJPY is rising somewhat after the bounce off the 143.40 support level, which failed several times to have a closing session beneath it. The MACD oscillator climbed above its trigger line in the negative region, while the RSI is pointing sl
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Daily Comment – Dollar edges up ahead of PCE inflation as stocks drift

All eyes on US core PCE and consumption as bets for 50-bps cut stall Dollar headed for weekly gains but Nasdaq has disappointing week Euro on the backfoot as soft Eurozone CPI cements September cut Big Tech woes weigh on Wall Street The US dollar looks set to pare its monthly losses as it heads for its first weekly gain since mid-July amid more evidence that the US economy is humming along nicely.
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Week Ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation

Traders see decent chance for 50bps Fed cut in September Powell adds extra importance to jobs data, NFP awaited BoC decides on rates, third consecutive cut is fully priced in Aussie traders lock gaze on GDP numbers   Bets for double Fed cut remain elevated Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts.
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Daily Comment – Markets cautious as Nvidia earnings and key US data loom

Dollar pauses slide as jobs and inflation data awaited Yen pulls back but hawkish BoJ signals keep it elevated Wall Street awaits Nvidia, oil retreats on demand worries Dollar awaits key data for direction The US dollar extended its slump against all its major peers on Tuesday, as in the absence of any top-tier data and shocking headlines, investors continued to digest Powell’s dovish stance at Jackson Hole.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY gets assistance from 143.40 support

USDJPY retains bearish bias MACD and RSI try to gain some momentum 23.6% Fibonacci acts as strong resistance USDJPY is continuing its descending movement, especially after the failed attempt to jump above the uptrend line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 161.94 to 141.60 at 149.50. As the market remains beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci of 146.45 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), there is no notable sign for an upside retracement.
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Daily Comment – Rate cut euphoria tempered by geopolitics as oil surges

Mood turns cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty in Libya and Gaza Fears of supply disruptions drive up oil prices, S&P 500 closes lower China concerns also weigh but European stocks turn positive as data awaited Geopolitical risks take over as oil rallies Equity markets were mixed on Tuesday and the US dollar consolidated as investors turned cautious ahead of the week’s main events amid renewed fears about disruptions to oil supply.
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USDJPY falls to three-week low after Powell confirms shift to rate cuts Latest decline looks overdone; support at 143.40   USDJPY has been trending to the downside after completing a bearish rising wedge in the four-hour chart, and Powell’s dovish speech at Jackson Hole further strengthened selling incentives on Friday, pressing the price to a three-week low of 143.43. The 143.40 region was a key constraint to downside movements at the start of the year and could again protect the m
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Daily Comment – Powell signals it’s time to cut; dollar sinks but risk rally muted

Powell says the time has come for rate cuts, pushing yields and dollar lower But cautious rally in stocks as Nvidia earnings, inflation data awaited Oil jumps amid fresh escalation between Israel and Hezbollah Powell green lights rate cuts Fed Chair Jerome Powell locked in a September rate cut on Friday, using his Jackson Hole address to signal the Fed’s long-awaited pivot toward an easing cycle.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – US dollar index, EURUSD, USDJPY

US Core PCE index could attract greater attention with an impact on dollar index Eurozone flash CPI closer to ECB’s target; EURUSD unlocks 1.1200 Japan’s Tokyo CPI might stay put; USDJPY heads south US core PCE inflation --> US dollar index   The release of the US Core PCE price index for July this Friday will provide crucial insights into the underlying inflation trends.
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الشروط

الأصول الشائعة

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