Wall Street greets Trump's return with greed and trepidation
Deregulation, lower taxes, softer antitrust stance expected
Some bankers told to get the ball rolling on deals
Trade tariffs, national debt and potential for chaotic policy are concerns
By Milana Vinn, Echo Wang and Nupur Anand
NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) -Wall Street executives by and large are looking forward to business-friendly regulations as they analyze the implications of a second Donald Trump presidency, while some bankers were immediately tasked with discussing potential deals.
Trump's return to power is likely to significantly ease some of the regulatory pressures industries have seen under the Biden administration, executives across banks and private equity said.
Smaller government, broad deregulation as well as tax breaks for corporations and the wealthy are widely expected. In particular, a softer stance on antitrust and less regulation in areas such as banking and cryptocurrencies could boost corporate profits and spur deal flow, they said.
"He is pro-business and anti-regulation," said Euan Rellie, co-founder and managing partner of investment bank BDA Partners. "His instincts are to cut taxes. All of that will help the M&A market."
"So long as he governs with moderation and not with chaos, the markets will welcome him," said Rellie.
That, some of the executives said, however, was not a given, and tempered the optimism.
Some bankers worried about how to navigate unpredictable shifts in government policy, the impact of trade tariffs, a potentially perilous fiscal path that adds trillions of dollars to the national debt as well as about the potential tightening of visa programmes.
For now, though, the reaction was euphoric. As U.S. stocks rallied sharply, one equity capital markets banker who declined to be named said his colleagues had got fresh mandates Wednesday morning as well as an opportunity to pitch for an initial public offering. The message was, "let's get the ball rolling," the banker said.
An investment banker who works at a global firm in New York also said that his firm had an internal call to discuss deals, including possibly revisiting some transactions that may have not passed regulatory scrutiny under Lina Khan's Federal Trade Commission in the Biden administration.
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A more lenient approach to antitrust issues could boost dealmaking in many sectors. Two sources with knowledge of the media industry said the sector was in for a period of consolidation over the next two years.
Greg Hertrich, head of U.S. depository strategies at Nomura, said the banking industry could see more mergers, too. "The current number of 4,700 banks in the U.S. may be reduced to around 2,500 faster," he said.
Large financial deals will have more chance of being greenlighted. Shares of payments firms Capital One COF.N and Discover Financial Services DFS.N, awaiting approval of a $35.3 billion deal, surged.
"It is expected that the Trump administration will be more open to sensible M&As than many believe has been the case under the Biden administration," said Gene Ludwig, a former top bank regulator who now advises financial institutions as CEO of Ludwig Advisors.
For banks, one of the biggest questions now is how stringent new Basel capital standards are going to be.
Ed Mills, an analyst at Raymond James, said the turnover of regulators as the new administration comes in will "stall the bank regulatory super cycle that has existed over the last couple of years."
"We are unlikely to see any major bank regulation come out and all of this paints a very favorable picture for the banks," said Mills.
MANY WORRIES
Not everyone was celebrating, however. A lawyer who works with renewable energy companies said he'd been on the phone with despondent clients all day. They were all trying to reach local Republican politicians in districts where they have planned projects, seeking assurances that tax credits and incentives under Biden's push for green energy would continue.
At one Wall Street firm, a meeting included conversation about the risk of deficits rising under a Trump administration, one source said. One estimate sees his policies adding $7.5 trillion to deficits over 10 years.
The hope among the participants was Trump's aides would encourage him not to go to extremes with tariffs and tax cuts, said the source.
Other concerns hit more on a personal level, such as safeguarding non-U.S. staff. In Trump's first term, he took steps to tighten access to some visa programs, including a suspension of many work visas during the COVID pandemic.
A private equity investor in New York said one issue that came up on Wednesday was questions from international employees on H-1B visas about whether they would face difficulties renewing their visas and how their employer could support them.
Reporting by Milana Vinn, Echo Wang, Kane Wu, Nupur Anand, Tatiana Bautzer, Saeed Azhar, Lananh Nguyen, Dawn Chmielewski and Iain Withers; Writing by Megan Davies; Editing by Edwina Gibbs
آخر الأخبار
إخلاء المسؤولية: تتيح كيانات XM Group خدمة تنفيذية فقط والدخول إلى منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت، مما يسمح للشخص بمشاهدة و/أو استخدام المحتوى المتاح على موقع الويب أو عن طريقه، وهذا المحتوى لا يراد به التغيير أو التوسع عن ذلك. يخضع هذا الدخول والاستخدام دائماً لما يلي: (1) الشروط والأحكام؛ (2) تحذيرات المخاطر؛ (3) إخلاء المسؤولية الكامل. لذلك يُقدم هذا المحتوى على أنه ليس أكثر من معلومات عامة. تحديداً، يرجى الانتباه إلى أن المحتوى المتاح على منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت ليس طلباً أو عرضاً لدخول أي معاملات في الأسواق المالية. التداول في أي سوق مالي به مخاطرة عالية برأس مالك.
جميع المواد المنشورة على منصة تداولنا مخصصة للأغراض التعليمية/المعلوماتية فقط ولا تحتوي - ولا ينبغي اعتبار أنها تحتوي - على نصائح أو توصيات مالية أو ضريبية أو تجارية، أو سجلاً لأسعار تداولنا، أو عرضاً أو طلباً لأي معاملة في أي صكوك مالية أو عروض ترويجية مالية لا داعي لها.
أي محتوى تابع للغير بالإضافة إلى المحتوى الذي أعدته XM، مثل الآراء، والأخبار، والأبحاث، والتحليلات والأسعار وغيرها من المعلومات أو روابط مواقع تابعة للغير وواردة في هذا الموقع تُقدم لك "كما هي"، كتعليق عام على السوق ولا تعتبر نصيحة استثمارية. يجب ألا يُفسر أي محتوى على أنه بحث استثماري، وأن تلاحظ وتقبل أن المحتوى غير مُعدٍ وفقاً للمتطلبات القانونية المصممة لتعزيز استقلالية البحث الاستثماري، وبالتالي، فهو بمثابة تواصل تسويقي بموجب القوانين واللوائح ذات الصلة. فضلاً تأكد من أنك قد قرأت وفهمت الإخطار بالبحوث الاستثمارية غير المستقلة والتحذير من مخاطر المعلومات السابقة، والذي يمكنك الاطلاع عليه هنا.
