US dollar gains as inflation data backs smaller Fed cut
U.S. PCE index rises 0.2 in July, in line with forecasts
U.S. consumer spending rises in July
Dollar set for biggest weekly rise vs yen since mid-June
Dollar index on track for worst month since November 2023
Adds new comment, bullets, byline, FX table, updates prices
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Aug 30 (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar gained on Friday after data showed a key inflation measure came in line with forecasts, while personal spending and income increased, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by a smaller 25 basis points next month.
The dollar rose 0.5% to 145.66 yen after the data JPY=EBS. It was up 0.9% for the week, on track for its biggest weekly rise since mid-June.
But the greenback remained down 2.9% for August as a whole, falling for a second straight month versus the Japanese currency.
Friday's data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, in line with expectations, after an unrevised 0.1% advance in June. In the 12 months through July, the PCE price index increased 2.5%, matching June's gain.
Consumer spending was also 0.5% higher last month after expanding 0.3% in June.
"Inflation prints are slowly but surely becoming boring again as this report continues the recent streak of benign core and headline inflation prints," wrote Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, in an emailed note.
"Consumer spending continues to surprisingly exceed all expectations...A 25 basis-point interest rate cut is pretty much set in stone in September, but the Fed will still hope the jobs report next week does nothing to pile on the pressure for a 50 basis-point cut."
U.S. rate futures on Friday implied a 31% chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut next month, down from Thursday's 35% probability, LSEG calculations showed, with the market fully pricing in a 25 basis-point cut, the Fed's first easing in more than four years.
Markets have factored in about 100 bps of cuts by the end of 2024.
The dollar index, a gauge of its value against six major peers, climbed to a 10-day high after the inflation data and was last up 0.1% at 101.52 =USD. On the week, it rose 0.8%, on track for its best weekly performance since early April.
This month, however, the index fell 2.4%, its weakest since November last year.
The dollar overall continued to benefit from month-end flows, having been sold after Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a Jackson Hole gathering last week gave the clearest signal yet that the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates at the September meeting.
In other currencies, the euro slipped against the dollar to $1.1074 EUR=EBS. It has fallen 1% this week, on track for its largest weekly loss since April.
The euro, however, rose 2.3% in the month of August, for its best monthly showing since November 2023, with the European Central Bank still on track to lower interest rates again next month.
The single currency fell to a more than one-week low on Thursday and ended down 0.4% after German inflation cooled more than expected, bolstering investors' expectations of ECB cuts.
Currency bid prices at 30 August 02:00 p.m. GMT | |||||||
Description | RIC | Last | U.S. Close Previous Session | Pct Change | YTD Pct | High Bid | Low Bid |
Dollar index | =USD | 101.47 | 101.36 | 0.12% | 0.10% | 101.65 | 101.24 |
Euro/Dollar | EUR=EBS | 1.1077 | 1.1077 | 0.01% | 0.36% | $1.1095 | $1.1054 |
Dollar/Yen | JPY=D3 | 145.54 | 144.96 | 0.43% | 3.22% | 145.725 | 144.685 |
Euro/Yen | EURJPY= | 1.1077 | 160.6 | 0.39% | 3.6% | 161.29 | 160.2 |
Dollar/Swiss | CHF=EBS | 0.8492 | 0.8473 | 0.23% | 0.9% | 0.851 | 0.8468 |
Sterling/Dollar | GBP=D3 | 1.3144 | 1.317 | -0.17% | 3.31% | $1.32 | $1.1054 |
Dollar/Canadian | CAD=D3 | 1.3482 | 1.3485 | -0.01% | 1.72% | 1.3509 | 1.3466 |
Aussie/Dollar | AUD=D3 | 0.6782 | 0.6798 | -0.21% | -0.51% | $0.6817 | $0.6775 |
Euro/Swiss | EURCHF= | 0.9407 | 0.9385 | 0.22% | 1.3% | 0.9417 | 0.9381 |
Euro/Sterling | EURGBP= | 0.8426 | 0.8411 | 0.19% | -2.79% | 0.8426 | 0.8401 |
NZ Dollar/Dollar | NZD=D3 | 0.6253 | 0.6257 | -0.05% | -1.03% | $0.6275 | 0.6242 |
Dollar/Norway | NOK= | 10.5921 | 10.4989 | 0.89% | 4.51% | 10.6055 | 10.4767 |
Euro/Norway | EURNOK= | 11.7321 | 11.6308 | 0.9% | 4.56% | 11.7383 | 11.6137 |
Dollar/Sweden | SEK= | 10.2677 | 10.2239 | 0.43% | 1.99% | 10.2835 | 10.209 |
Euro/Sweden | EURSEK= | 11.3731 | 11.3231 | 0.44% | 2.26% | 11.3785 | 11.317 |
Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Davide Barbuscia in New York and Harry Robertson in London; Editing by Ros Russell and Christina Fincher
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إخلاء المسؤولية: تتيح كيانات XM Group خدمة تنفيذية فقط والدخول إلى منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت، مما يسمح للشخص بمشاهدة و/أو استخدام المحتوى المتاح على موقع الويب أو عن طريقه، وهذا المحتوى لا يراد به التغيير أو التوسع عن ذلك. يخضع هذا الدخول والاستخدام دائماً لما يلي: (1) الشروط والأحكام؛ (2) تحذيرات المخاطر؛ (3) إخلاء المسؤولية الكامل. لذلك يُقدم هذا المحتوى على أنه ليس أكثر من معلومات عامة. تحديداً، يرجى الانتباه إلى أن المحتوى المتاح على منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت ليس طلباً أو عرضاً لدخول أي معاملات في الأسواق المالية. التداول في أي سوق مالي به مخاطرة عالية برأس مالك.
جميع المواد المنشورة على منصة تداولنا مخصصة للأغراض التعليمية/المعلوماتية فقط ولا تحتوي - ولا ينبغي اعتبار أنها تحتوي - على نصائح أو توصيات مالية أو ضريبية أو تجارية، أو سجلاً لأسعار تداولنا، أو عرضاً أو طلباً لأي معاملة في أي صكوك مالية أو عروض ترويجية مالية لا داعي لها.
أي محتوى تابع للغير بالإضافة إلى المحتوى الذي أعدته XM، مثل الآراء، والأخبار، والأبحاث، والتحليلات والأسعار وغيرها من المعلومات أو روابط مواقع تابعة للغير وواردة في هذا الموقع تُقدم لك "كما هي"، كتعليق عام على السوق ولا تعتبر نصيحة استثمارية. يجب ألا يُفسر أي محتوى على أنه بحث استثماري، وأن تلاحظ وتقبل أن المحتوى غير مُعدٍ وفقاً للمتطلبات القانونية المصممة لتعزيز استقلالية البحث الاستثماري، وبالتالي، فهو بمثابة تواصل تسويقي بموجب القوانين واللوائح ذات الصلة. فضلاً تأكد من أنك قد قرأت وفهمت الإخطار بالبحوث الاستثمارية غير المستقلة والتحذير من مخاطر المعلومات السابقة، والذي يمكنك الاطلاع عليه هنا.
