Take Five: Ready for an action-packed week?
Updates paragraphs 10-15 in Friday story to include Japan election result; adds new Japanese markets graphic
LONDON, Oct 28 (Reuters) -Traders will have their work cut out keeping up with Japan's snap election, U.S. jobs data, a UK budget, euro zone growth numbers and a slew of third-quarter earnings.
And as a U.S. presidential election nears, global market swings are getting bigger.
Here's all you need to know about the week ahead from Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo and Naomi Rovnick, Amanda Cooper and Sinead Cruise in London.
1/ MEGACAPS, THEN JOBS
A full-on week of U.S. earnings is capped by Friday's key jobs data.
Five of the "Magnificent Seven" U.S. titans report quarterly results: Google parent Alphabet GOOGL.O on Oct. 29, Microsoft MSFT.O and Facebook parent Meta Platforms META.O on Oct. 30, and Apple AAPL.O and Amazon AMZN.O on Oct. 31.
The companies have an outsized influence on markets because of their massive market values.
Tesla TSLA.O, the first of the "Magnificent Seven" to report, said on Wednesday it expects to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries this year and reported a higher-than-expected third-quarter profit margin.
Economists meanwhile expect the U.S. economy created 140,000 new jobs in October, versus 254,000 in September.
Two significant storms could skew the data, which comes just ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. election and a potential 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Nov. 7.
2/ SNAP
Japanese voters punished the rulingLiberal Democratic Party for a spate of scandals on Sunday.
From an outright parliamentary majority heading into the election, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's LDP emerged without a mandate even combined with coalition partner Komeito.
In a news conference on Monday, Ishiba again vowed to stay on, saying such trying economic and geopolitical times call for continuity.
Protracted political wrangling is the likely next phase, as the coalition seeks allies to remain in power - although concessions are expected.
Even bigger fiscal spending seems a given, particularly with a senate election in July. And likely partners tend to favour easy monetary policy .
The yen tumbled as much as 1% to a three-month trough in response. But unexpectedly, the Nikkei stock average shook off early softness to rally some 2%, buoyed by the weaker currency and relief that the election had passed.
3/ TRICK OR TREAT?
Britain's new Labour government unveils its first budget on Wednesday.
With few choices available to finance minister Rachel Reeves as she balances high debt, public spending pledges and a promise not to hike income tax, markets fear extra borrowing and tax grabs on capital gains, dividends and inherited wealth.
The 10-year gilt yield UK10YT=RR is about 18 bps higher this week, dragged up in part by rising U.S. Treasury yields, even after soft inflation fuelled hopes for UK rate cuts.
Gripped by budget uncertainty, UK stocks are underperforming again after a promising pre-election rally for these long-term laggards.
But bullish UK investors, a thinning crowd, reckon British markets could bounce if Reeves' Halloween-eve budget is less frightening than Labour's gloomy assessments of the economy suggested.
4/ EVEN SICKER MAN
The euro EUR=EBS is witnessing one of its worst runs ever.
It has only posted four up-days in the last month, its weakest performance since May 2012, when a sovereign debt crisis threatened the survival of the currency bloc.
The prospect of U.S. rates not falling as quickly as anticipated has boosted the dollar, while expectations for Republican Donald Trump to win the November election are hitting the euro, given the risk of a sharp rise in U.S. tariffs on European goods.
The European Central Bank is expected to ramp up rate cuts as the currency bloc's economy sputters, especially in Germany. Europe's powerhouse is deteriorating faster than any other industrialised country and the coming week brings data on growth and inflation that are unlikely to offer much reassurance.
5/ TRUST US
UBS UBSG.S and HSBC HSBA.L are leading European banks reporting Q3 earnings in the coming days, following Deutsche Bank and Barclays.
The sector is healthier than at any point since the global financial crisis, yet investors want reassurance they can trust its longer-term earnings power as interest rates fall.
Besides looking for evidence of asset quality resilience, they want a sharper strategy, lower costs and the potential to outperform in a low growth global economy.
HSBC has already set the tone this week, unveiling a streamlined executive committee and a merger of some costly banking operations in a sweeping restructuring along East-West lines.
But as Deutsche showed, past problems can still detract from future goals. The German lender blamed a lacklustre domestic economy for higher provisions against a possible rise in bad debts to 1.8 billion euros ($1.95 billion) for the full year, from 1.5 billion euros last year.
($1 = 0.9239 euros)
US non-farm payrolls likely hit a four-month low in October https://reut.rs/3Yx7fns
The UK election catch-up trade faded before the vote https://reut.rs/4f6Ap2A
Euro zone engines of growth sputter https://reut.rs/4hiiE1W
European banks outperform https://reut.rs/3zYUDwg
Yen plunges, Nikkei rallies amid political upheaval https://reut.rs/3Up52rQ
Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Kripa Jayram, Prinz Magtulis and Tom Sims; Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Toby Chopra
الأصول ذات الصلة
آخر الأخبار
إخلاء المسؤولية: تتيح كيانات XM Group خدمة تنفيذية فقط والدخول إلى منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت، مما يسمح للشخص بمشاهدة و/أو استخدام المحتوى المتاح على موقع الويب أو عن طريقه، وهذا المحتوى لا يراد به التغيير أو التوسع عن ذلك. يخضع هذا الدخول والاستخدام دائماً لما يلي: (1) الشروط والأحكام؛ (2) تحذيرات المخاطر؛ (3) إخلاء المسؤولية الكامل. لذلك يُقدم هذا المحتوى على أنه ليس أكثر من معلومات عامة. تحديداً، يرجى الانتباه إلى أن المحتوى المتاح على منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت ليس طلباً أو عرضاً لدخول أي معاملات في الأسواق المالية. التداول في أي سوق مالي به مخاطرة عالية برأس مالك.
جميع المواد المنشورة على منصة تداولنا مخصصة للأغراض التعليمية/المعلوماتية فقط ولا تحتوي - ولا ينبغي اعتبار أنها تحتوي - على نصائح أو توصيات مالية أو ضريبية أو تجارية، أو سجلاً لأسعار تداولنا، أو عرضاً أو طلباً لأي معاملة في أي صكوك مالية أو عروض ترويجية مالية لا داعي لها.
أي محتوى تابع للغير بالإضافة إلى المحتوى الذي أعدته XM، مثل الآراء، والأخبار، والأبحاث، والتحليلات والأسعار وغيرها من المعلومات أو روابط مواقع تابعة للغير وواردة في هذا الموقع تُقدم لك "كما هي"، كتعليق عام على السوق ولا تعتبر نصيحة استثمارية. يجب ألا يُفسر أي محتوى على أنه بحث استثماري، وأن تلاحظ وتقبل أن المحتوى غير مُعدٍ وفقاً للمتطلبات القانونية المصممة لتعزيز استقلالية البحث الاستثماري، وبالتالي، فهو بمثابة تواصل تسويقي بموجب القوانين واللوائح ذات الصلة. فضلاً تأكد من أنك قد قرأت وفهمت الإخطار بالبحوث الاستثمارية غير المستقلة والتحذير من مخاطر المعلومات السابقة، والذي يمكنك الاطلاع عليه هنا.
