Asian currencies tumble as dollar surges on Trump win wagers

Reuters

Asian currencies tumble as dollar surges on Trump win wagers

6 نوفمبر 2024 الساعة 01:5 صباحاً بتوقيت GMT

<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>EMERGING MARKETS-Asian currencies tumble as dollar surges on Trump win wagers</title></head><body>

Singapore dollar set for worst day in 13 years

Malaysian ringgit down 1.3% ahead of rate decision

Thai baht slumps to two-month low

By Himanshi Akhand

Nov 6 (Reuters) -Singapore's dollar and Thailand's baht fell the most among Asian currencies on Wednesday, while the Mexican peso hit a two-year low as the dollar rallied on wagers for Donald Trump to win the U.S. presidential election, which stayed too close to call.

The Singapore dollar SGD= tumbled 1.6% to its lowest in three months, set for its worst session since November 2011.

Thailand's baht THB=TH slumped 1.3% to a two-month low, while the South Korean won KRW=KFTC also fell as much as 1.5% to its lowest since mid-April.

The dollar index =USD, measuring the currency against six major peers, climbed 1.42% and U.S. Treasury yields also surged to multi-month peaks. FRX/ US/

Trump took an early lead over Democrat Kamala Harris in the hotly contested election as solid Republican-leaning states reported first, but the outcome stayed uncertain, with key battleground states unlikely to be called for hours - or even days.

Reuters' vote count shows Trump winning 211 electoral college votes against 153 for Harris so far. A candidate needs at least 270 to win.

Analysts view Trump's proposed tariff and immigration policies as inflationary, and are therefore likely to put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, and undermine the currencies of trading partners.

"The market is still making positioning adjustments to prepare for a possible Trump victory," said Ken Cheung Kin Tai, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank.

"Regional investors are particularly worried about the impact from tariffs because most Asian economies rely on trade growth."

MUFG analysts feel the South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit will be hit harder by a potential Trump win, because of their export orientation and sensitivity to a potential slowdown in China's growth.

The yuan and Mexican peso are seen as most vulnerable to a stronger dollar and heavier tariffs under Trump.

The peso MXN= dropped as low as 20.7080 to the dollar for the first time since August 2022.

The ringgit MYR=, Southeast Asia's best performing currency this year, also fell 1.3% to its lowest, since mid-August ahead of an interest rate decision.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is likely to hold its key interest rate steady at 3.00%, a Reuters poll showed.

The central bank also said it was closely monitoring the U.S. election and was prepared to manage market volatility and ensure orderly market conditions.

The Indonesian rupiah IDR= fell 0.8% to a nearly three-month low. An official said Indonesia's central bank was also ready to stabilise the rupiah, including steps such as intervention, if there was excessive volatility.

Regional stock markets were mixed, with equities in Seoul .KS11 down 1%, while those in Taipei .TWII rose 1% and Kuala Lumpur .KLSE was up 0.4%.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Thai headline CPI rises 0.83% y/y in Oct, below forecast

** Philippines posts widest trade gap in 20 months

Asia stock indexes and currencies as at 0411 GMT
COUNTRY	FX RIC	FX DAILY %	FX YTD %	INDEX	STOCKS DAILY %	STOCKS YTD %
Japan	JPY=	-1.46	-8.31	.N225	2.72	18.10
China	CNY=CFXS	-0.68	-0.79	.SSEC	0.16	14.03
India	INR=IN	-0.09	-1.16	.NSEI	0.29	11.74
Indonesia	IDR=	-0.73	-2.84	.JKSE	-0.11	2.90
Malaysia	MYR=	-1.34	+4.34	.KLSE	0.35	11.80
Philippines	PHP=	-0.37	-5.64	.PSI	-0.27	12.22
S.Korea	KRW=KFTC	-1.30	-7.83	.KS11	-1.27	-4.18
Singapore	SGD=	-1.63	-1.21	.STI	-0.02	10.51
Taiwan	TWD=TP	-0.42	-4.26	.TWII	0.97	30.12
Thailand	THB=TH	-1.28	+0.53	.SETI	0.05	4.70