US natgas eases more than 1% on lower demand outlook, higher stockpiles
By Rahul Paswan
Sept 20 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slipped more than 1% on Friday, weighed down by lower demand forecasts for next week and oversupply of fuel left in storage.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.9 cents or 0.8% to $2.33 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 09:58 a.m. EDT (1358 GMT), after rising to its highest since Sept. 16 at $2.38 per mmBtu, earlier in the session.
However, the contract gained about 0.8% so far this week, heading for its fourth straight weekly gain.
"Power burns have also been strengthening over the last few days which again is another factor that's certainly helping demand, but that's somewhat offsetting slightly weaker LNG and I think that there's a lot of moving pieces today and the market is pretty much undecided as to where to go in the near term, said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.
Financial firm LSEG estimated 122 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, lower than 124 CDDs forecasted on Thursday. The normal for this time of year is 86 CDDs. Cooling degree days, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, at 99.6 billion cubic feet (bcfd) per day this week to 98.7 bcfd next week.
LSEG forecast average gas supply in the Lower 48, including exports, at 101.8 bcfd this week to go up to 101.9 bcfd next week.
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.0 bcfd so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.
On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 58 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 13, which was still about 8% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL
"I think prices even through November are going to remain relatively favorable for gas fire generation and that's going to be an added feather to the cap for demand, not just a seasonal increase of colder weather giving a lift to residential and commercial load, but also the fact that power burns could remain strong in the very near term," DiDona said.
Gas prices were trading around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU
In other news, Chevron CVX.N does not want to invest in the construction of U.S. LNG plants, as it is not the best use of the company's capital and it can easily sell its U.S. gas, said a top official on Thursday. The head of Chevron's midstream, Colin Parfitt, also ruled out taking an equity stake in Woodside Energy's WDS.AX impending purchase of Louisiana-based Driftwood LNG.
Meanwhile natural gas production has begun earlier than planned at Argentina's Fenix offshore field, French oil major TotalEnergies said on Friday. The $700 million project, initially scheduled to begin operating in November, has a production capacity of 10 million cubic meters of natural gas per day, representing 8% of Argentina's total production and about 7% of annual consumption.
Week ended Sep 20 | Week ended Sep 13 | Year ago Sep 20 | Five-year average Sep 20 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +54 | +58 | +82 | +88 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,499 | 3,445 | 3,333 | 3,259 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 7.4% | 8.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.36 | 2.26 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.22 | 11.78 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.83 | 13.22 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 24 | 20 | 13 | 20 | 61 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 122 | 124 | 119 | 121 | 86 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 146 | 144 | 132 | 141 | 147 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.1 | 101.8 | 101.9 | 103.5 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.1 | 109.5 | 109.7 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.0 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.4 | 39.9 | 37.5 | 42.1 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.9 | 21.9 | 22.1 | 21.5 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 77.4 | 77.8 | 76.3 | 79.4 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.6 | 99.6 | 98.7 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 20 | Week ended Sep 13 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 10 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 44 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 16 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.24 | 2.31 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.45 | 1.66 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.26 | 2.53 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.47 | 1.58 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.93 | 1.96 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.75 | 1.95 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.75 | 1.95 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.37 | 1.05 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.29 | 0.44 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 33 | 39.5 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 45 | 45.5 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 25 | 37 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 44 | 46.25 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 19.25 | 19 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 17.5 | 17.5 |
Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Nick Zieminski
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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