Stronger levels for CEE currencies seen, but little relief

Reuters

Stronger levels for CEE currencies seen, but little relief

1 نوفمبر 2024 الساعة 05:8 صباحاً بتوقيت GMT

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reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURCZK= euro/koruna poll data

reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURPLN= euro/zloty poll data

reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURHUF= euro/forint poll data

reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRON= euro/leu poll data

reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRSD= euro/Serbian dinar poll data

By Jason Hovet

PRAGUE, Nov 1 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies could regain ground in coming months after falling to multi-month lows amid uncertainty before U.S. elections, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, but pressure is unlikely to go away quickly for Hungary's forint.

The forint is central Europe's worst-performing currency in 2024, having lost almost 6% against the euro as of Wednesday's close. In the past month, it has depreciated more than 2% and hit more than 22-month lows.

Pressure has also come this week from data showing the Hungarian economy tilted into a technical recession.

In the poll, analysts saw the forint stronger in coming months. But after that expected bump, the currency is likely to continue in a weakening trend.

The poll's median forecast put the forint EURHUF= at 400 to the euro in three months, or 1.9% firmer than Wednesday's close. In 12 months the forint was seen at 405 per euro, just a touch firmer than levels seen this week.

"We expect the Hungarian forint to be stuck in the 400-410 range with a lot of... risks stemming from the U.S. election outcome and local economic and fiscal concerns," ING economist Peter Virovacz said.

Commerzbank said in a note on Thursday the forint's depreciation could raise concern at Hungary's central bank, which has paused a rate-cutting cycle. Government pressure to continue rate cuts could rise due to the weak economy, it said.

The local factors have mixed with a stronger dollar weighing on central Europe, as global investors see chances former president Donald Trump could win in U.S. elections on Nov. 5.

In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= touched a four-month low this week. It, too, was seen rebounding and keeping up gains, with the three-month median forecast at 4.30 per euro, up 1.3% from Wednesday's close, and at 4.2833 in 12 months' time.

The Czech crown should also recover from a fall and is seen 1.1% stronger in three months, at 25.10 to the euro, and 2.5% stronger in a year to lead gains in the region.

Romania's leu, in contrast, was expected to weaken a touch in the coming months and lose 0.5% in the next year to fall to 5.00 to the euro.

(Other stories from the November Reuters foreign exchange poll)

Reporting by Jason Hovet; Polling by Purujit Arun, Jaiganesh Mahesh and Renusri K; Editing by Mark Potter

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