Fed outlook lifts dollar to 2-1/2-month peak; yen wallows at 152
Yen hits three-month low amid rising U.S. Treasury yields
Fed's Beige Book tops economic calendar on Wednesday
Investors weigh risk of Republican sweep in U.S. presidential election
Updates with prices as of 0530 GMT
By Brigid Riley
TOKYO, Oct 23 (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar ticked up to a 2-1/2-month peak on Wednesday as investors adjusted bets toward a gradual reduction of interest rates while keeping an eye on a close presidential election race.
The yen was the biggest mover, sliding to 152 per dollar for the first time since July 31 as U.S. Treasury yields and the greenback continued to march higher.
The dollar has climbed for three weeks to hit its highest since Aug. 2 at 104.19 as expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have faded after a slew of upbeat economic data.
Markets now have a 91% chance priced in for a moderate quarter-basis-point cut in November, the CME FedWatch tool showed. A month earlier, investors were split between bets for 50 basis points and 25 bps.
The outlook has bolstered Treasury yields, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note US10YT=RR hitting its highest since July 26 at 4.222% on Tuesday and keeping the heat on the yen.
The possibility of Republican former President Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election next month has further buoyed the dollar and pressured the yen.
Against the yen, the dollar last traded at 152.08 yen JPY=EBS, up 0.65%.
With less than two weeks to go before votes are tallied in the presidential election, investors have been weighing the possibility of a Republican sweep - widely expected to be the most bullish election scenario for the greenback.
While market expectations appear to be leaning toward a Trump win, there's still "plenty of time" to reprice, said senior market analyst Matt Simpson at City Index.
"We might even see a bit of a pullback on the mighty dollar and yields if markets price in a Harris win, given her policies are deemed less inflationary."
In a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris held a marginal 46% to 43% lead over Republican former President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, Japan is set to hold a general election on Oct. 27. Recent opinion polls indicated that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could lose its majority with coalition partner Komeito.
The risk of a minority coalition government has raised the prospect of political instability complicating the Bank of Japan's effort to reduce dependence on monetary stimulus.
Analysts say it could also cause some volatility in local markets.
"It's hard to find a reason to buy the yen" ahead of the elections, said Marito Ueda, general manager at SBI Liquidity Market's market research department.
If there's any attempt to bolster the yen, it would likely come from the Bank of Japan adopting a more hawkish stance at its upcoming monetary policy meeting, rather than through direct currency intervention, he added.
BEIGE BOOK IN SPOTLIGHT
Amid an otherwise light calendar for economic data on Wednesday, the stand-out event is the release of the Fed's Beige Book summary of economic conditions.
The Beige Book is likely to show a continued pattern of decelerating economic growth with isolated strengths, said City Index's Simpson.
However, an upside surprise seems more likely given recent data has outperformed forecasts, he said.
"Still, the USD index and U.S. yields only posted marginal gains on Tuesday, which suggest bulls should tread with caution, especially if we see the two-year moves back below 4%."
The dollar index =USD, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was mostly flat at 104.13. The index is up more than 3% so far this month.
Elsewhere, the euro EUR=EBS was last at $1.08035 after sliding to its lowest since Aug. 2 at $1.0792. European Central Bank policymakers joined forces on Tuesday to flag the risk of inflation falling below the bank's 2% target.
Sterling GBP=D3 was little changed at $1.29925 after falling to its lowest since Aug. 19 of $1.2945 in the previous session.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin BTC= shed 0.71% to $67,002.42.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Reporting by Brigid Riley; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Sonali Paul
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إخلاء المسؤولية: تتيح كيانات XM Group خدمة تنفيذية فقط والدخول إلى منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت، مما يسمح للشخص بمشاهدة و/أو استخدام المحتوى المتاح على موقع الويب أو عن طريقه، وهذا المحتوى لا يراد به التغيير أو التوسع عن ذلك. يخضع هذا الدخول والاستخدام دائماً لما يلي: (1) الشروط والأحكام؛ (2) تحذيرات المخاطر؛ (3) إخلاء المسؤولية الكامل. لذلك يُقدم هذا المحتوى على أنه ليس أكثر من معلومات عامة. تحديداً، يرجى الانتباه إلى أن المحتوى المتاح على منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت ليس طلباً أو عرضاً لدخول أي معاملات في الأسواق المالية. التداول في أي سوق مالي به مخاطرة عالية برأس مالك.
جميع المواد المنشورة على منصة تداولنا مخصصة للأغراض التعليمية/المعلوماتية فقط ولا تحتوي - ولا ينبغي اعتبار أنها تحتوي - على نصائح أو توصيات مالية أو ضريبية أو تجارية، أو سجلاً لأسعار تداولنا، أو عرضاً أو طلباً لأي معاملة في أي صكوك مالية أو عروض ترويجية مالية لا داعي لها.
أي محتوى تابع للغير بالإضافة إلى المحتوى الذي أعدته XM، مثل الآراء، والأخبار، والأبحاث، والتحليلات والأسعار وغيرها من المعلومات أو روابط مواقع تابعة للغير وواردة في هذا الموقع تُقدم لك "كما هي"، كتعليق عام على السوق ولا تعتبر نصيحة استثمارية. يجب ألا يُفسر أي محتوى على أنه بحث استثماري، وأن تلاحظ وتقبل أن المحتوى غير مُعدٍ وفقاً للمتطلبات القانونية المصممة لتعزيز استقلالية البحث الاستثماري، وبالتالي، فهو بمثابة تواصل تسويقي بموجب القوانين واللوائح ذات الصلة. فضلاً تأكد من أنك قد قرأت وفهمت الإخطار بالبحوث الاستثمارية غير المستقلة والتحذير من مخاطر المعلومات السابقة، والذي يمكنك الاطلاع عليه هنا.
