Dollar near six-week high ahead of US jobs report; yen wobbles
Updates at 0338 GMT
By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE, Oct 4 (Reuters) -The dollar hovered near a six-week high on Friday ahead of a payrolls report that could decide the path of U.S. interest rates, while the yen headed for its weakest weekly performance since 2016, hit by uncertainty over Japan's monetary policy.
The dollar was also boosted by safe-haven demand as investors weighed widening Middle East tensions and their impact on the global economy.
The dollar index =USD, which measures the U.S. unit against six peers, was last at 101.90, not far from a six-week high of 102.09 touched on Thursday. The index is up nearly 1.5%, for the week, its strongest such performance since April.
The euro EUR=EBS was steady at $1.1034, having dropped 1.18% this week.
Data on Thursday showed the U.S. labour market gliding at the end of the third quarter, setting the stage for Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report.
Economists polled by Reuters expect 140,000 job additions, while unemployment is anticipated to keep steady at 4.2%.
"There is little evidence to suggest a U.S. hard landing is on the horizon," said Prashant Newnaha, a senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities.
"Our sense is that the risks to September non-farm payrolls lie to the upside and should see U.S. Treasuries continue their push higher in yield."
The jobs report comes as markets contend with an improving U.S. economic picture and a more hawkish tone from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who dashed some hopes on Monday that it would go big on interest rate cuts again next month.
Markets are pricing in a 33% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in November by 50 basis points (bps), down from 49% last week, the CME FedWatch tool showed. The Fed cut interest rates last month by 50 bps.
A stronger-than-expected September payrolls number could be viewed as dovish, said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets, as it would bring the unemployment rate in line with the Fed's end-2024 forecast.
"This may prompt some officials to consider a 50bp rate cut at in November," he said.
"Even if (the payrolls data) is uneventful, the dollar will face another round of key data next month, with one more payroll report due just before the November meeting."
YEN WOES
Investors are still digesting the plethora of dovish comments from Japanese politicians and policymakers that have reinforced the view that the Bank of Japan will be in no rush to raise interest rates.
The economy was not ready for further rate hikes, Japan's new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, said this week in surprisingly blunt remarks that pushed the yen lower. He is set to make a policy speech at 0500 GMT.
The Asian currency JPY=EBS has slid about 3% in its biggest weekly decline since November 2016, and touched its lowest level since Aug. 20, at 147.25 to the dollar. On Friday, the yen was 0.3% higher, at 146.43.
With Japan's general elections set for Oct. 27, analysts broadly expect the BOJ to hold rates in the near term.
Sterling GBP=D3 was nursing losses after sliding 1% on Thursday following comments by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who said the central bank could aggressively cut rates if inflation pressures continued to ease.
On Friday, the pound last fetched $1.3127, hovering close to a three-week low of $1.3093 touched on Thursday. It has risen more than 3% this year, largely on market expectations for the BoE to keep rates higher for longer.
"Bailey on Thursday stuck the boot into the pound's great bull run," Ray Attrill, head of FX research at the National Australia Bank (NAB), said in a note. "We think it unlikely the BoE will speed things up this side of Feb 2025."
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar AUD=D3 was little changed at $0.6843 but was down 0.8% for the week and set for its first weekly decline in four.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Edwina Gibbs
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إخلاء المسؤولية: تتيح كيانات XM Group خدمة تنفيذية فقط والدخول إلى منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت، مما يسمح للشخص بمشاهدة و/أو استخدام المحتوى المتاح على موقع الويب أو عن طريقه، وهذا المحتوى لا يراد به التغيير أو التوسع عن ذلك. يخضع هذا الدخول والاستخدام دائماً لما يلي: (1) الشروط والأحكام؛ (2) تحذيرات المخاطر؛ (3) إخلاء المسؤولية الكامل. لذلك يُقدم هذا المحتوى على أنه ليس أكثر من معلومات عامة. تحديداً، يرجى الانتباه إلى أن المحتوى المتاح على منصة تداولنا عبر الإنترنت ليس طلباً أو عرضاً لدخول أي معاملات في الأسواق المالية. التداول في أي سوق مالي به مخاطرة عالية برأس مالك.
جميع المواد المنشورة على منصة تداولنا مخصصة للأغراض التعليمية/المعلوماتية فقط ولا تحتوي - ولا ينبغي اعتبار أنها تحتوي - على نصائح أو توصيات مالية أو ضريبية أو تجارية، أو سجلاً لأسعار تداولنا، أو عرضاً أو طلباً لأي معاملة في أي صكوك مالية أو عروض ترويجية مالية لا داعي لها.
أي محتوى تابع للغير بالإضافة إلى المحتوى الذي أعدته XM، مثل الآراء، والأخبار، والأبحاث، والتحليلات والأسعار وغيرها من المعلومات أو روابط مواقع تابعة للغير وواردة في هذا الموقع تُقدم لك "كما هي"، كتعليق عام على السوق ولا تعتبر نصيحة استثمارية. يجب ألا يُفسر أي محتوى على أنه بحث استثماري، وأن تلاحظ وتقبل أن المحتوى غير مُعدٍ وفقاً للمتطلبات القانونية المصممة لتعزيز استقلالية البحث الاستثماري، وبالتالي، فهو بمثابة تواصل تسويقي بموجب القوانين واللوائح ذات الصلة. فضلاً تأكد من أنك قد قرأت وفهمت الإخطار بالبحوث الاستثمارية غير المستقلة والتحذير من مخاطر المعلومات السابقة، والذي يمكنك الاطلاع عليه هنا.
