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المعاينات

Week Ahead – ECB poised to cut again, US CPI to get final say on size of Fed cut

ECB is expected to ease again, but will it be another ‘hawkish cut’? US CPI report will be the last inflation update before September FOMC UK monthly data flurry begins with employment and GDP numbers ECB to cut rates for second time The European Central Bank’s carefully choreographed rate-cutting cycle got off to an awkward start in June after last-minute data upsets.
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Will the NFP take a September double Fed cut off the table? – Preview

Fed fund futures suggest a 40% chance of a 50bps September cut Powell’s Jackson Hole speech adds importance to jobs data US employment report scheduled for Friday at 13:30 GMT   Investors see increasing chance of 50bps cut The dollar had a rough time in August, underperforming against all its major counterparts as market participants remained convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates by around 105 basis points by the end of the year.
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BoC rate decision: Third rate cut on the way – Preview

BoC could easily cut interest rates for the third time on Wednesday  Macro data favors additional easing but will it be a continuous process? USDCAD needs a close above 1.3585 to gain fresh bullish momentum   The easing cycle has more room to go The Bank of Canada (BoC) is in the front of the global easing cycle. Having cut interest rates twice in a row, the central bank is widely expected to announce its third reduction on Wednesday at 13:45 GMT, but it won’t stop there.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD

USDJPY aims to break above 20-SMA ahead of the NFP report. Will it be successful this time? USDCAD stops at 5-month low as the focus turns to the BoC rate decision AUDUSD hangs near 8-month high; Australian GDP is on the calendar   Nonfarm payrolls, ISM PMIs --> USDJPY USDJPY is looking for fresh buying as it is still striving for a close above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and beyond the 146.00 number.
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Week Ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation

Traders see decent chance for 50bps Fed cut in September Powell adds extra importance to jobs data, NFP awaited BoC decides on rates, third consecutive cut is fully priced in Aussie traders lock gaze on GDP numbers   Bets for double Fed cut remain elevated Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – US dollar index, EURUSD, USDJPY

US Core PCE index could attract greater attention with an impact on dollar index Eurozone flash CPI closer to ECB’s target; EURUSD unlocks 1.1200 Japan’s Tokyo CPI might stay put; USDJPY heads south US core PCE inflation --> US dollar index   The release of the US Core PCE price index for July this Friday will provide crucial insights into the underlying inflation trends.
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Week Ahead – PCE inflation eyed as Fed lays groundwork for September cut

Focus to stay on the Fed as PCE inflation to be week’s main highlight Eurozone inflation data to be crucial for ECB rate cut hopes Australian and Tokyo CPI, plus Canadian GDP also on the agenda Will PCE inflation disappoint dovish expectations? The Fed’s long-anticipated dovish pivot is upon us and markets are bracing for the first US rate cut of this cycle at the September 17-18 meeting.
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Could Fed chief Powell finally reveal his hand at Jackson Hole? – Preview

The Jackson Hole Symposium will be held on August 22-24 Fed Chairman Powell speaks on Friday at 14:00 GMT Markets expect a dovish tone in support of a September rate cut Fed minutes and PMI surveys to set the scene Markets are gearing up for the Jackson Hole Symposium The much talked-about Jackson Hole Symposium is just a few days away with the markets anxiously waiting for Fed Chairman Powell’s speech.
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Could eurozone PMI surveys cement the September ECB rate cut? – Preview  

Markets are preparing for the Jackson Hole Symposium Eurozone data supports another ECB rate cut PMI surveys for the euro area will be published on Thursday Euro remains on the back foot against the pound The Jackson Hole gathering to break the summer lull Whilst ECB members are probably enjoying their hard-earned holiday break, the countdown to the Jackson Hole Symposium and the crucial September central banks’ meetings has already started.
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Week Ahead – Jackson Hole and PMIs enter the spotlight

As recession fears ease, investors lock gaze on Jackson Hole Eurozone and UK PMIs to affect ECB and BoE expectations Canadian inflation could back third consecutive BoC cut Japan’s Nationwide CPI data also on the agenda Jackson Hole to test overly dovish Fed cut bets Following the unjustified panic triggered by the weaker-than-expected NFP report for July, investors have taken a calmer stance, thereafter, reevaluating their aggressive Fed rate cut bets as the incoming data s
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Asian markets bounce back; eyes on local data, not just US CPI – Preview

Asian equities extend rebound ahead of key data Japanese GDP, Aussie jobs and Chinese indicators on the agenda Any upsets could roil the fragile sentiment A cautious rebound for stocks Stock markets in Asia have not been immune to the global selloff in August amid the unwinding of the yen carry trade and renewed fears about a US recession.
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The calmer markets could refocus on economic releases Rich UK data calendar could question BoE’s recent rate cut Wednesday’s headline inflation to see a small acceleration Pound is trying to recover from the BoE-induced underperformance Markets to refocus on data Following a rather eventful period, market participants are feeling slightly calmer at the beginning of this week and hence have the chance to refocus on the real economy.
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US CPI and retail sales data to test Fed rate cut bets - Preview

Investors panicked after NFP report But incoming data eased fears and rate cut bets Still, market pricing remains overly dovish Focus turns to US CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday, at 12:30 GMT Latest data ease recession fears Following the weaker-than-expected US employment report for July, market participants entered panic mode as recession fears resurfaced.
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Will the RBNZ start cutting rates sooner than later – Preview

RBNZ could keep interest rates steady but signal easing sooner rather than later Economic picture shows signs of stress but no red flags yet NZDUSD approaches 0.6060-0.6080 resistance territory   NZ employment data sway rate cut bets Q2 employment data from New Zealand exceeded the forecasts, leading to a reevaluation of rate cut expectations and a subsequent bullish movement in NZDUSD.
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Week Ahead – US CPI to test market nerves, RBNZ might cut rates

Market turmoil has eased, but will US CPI stir things up again? Crucial week for sterling as UK CPI, GDP and retail sales on the way The RBNZ is edging closer to a rate cut, but will it be next week? Japanese GDP, Australian jobs and Chinese data eyed too US economy worries take front and centre The panic about the US economy being on the verge of a recession has mostly eased but markets remain jittery.
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Will the BoJ Summary of Opinions add more fuel to the yen’s engines? – Preview

Yen rallies on cocktail of developments BoJ Summary could offer more policy clarity The report will be published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT Yen skyrockets more than 12% after intervention After hitting a 38-year low against its US counterpart on July 3, the Japanese yen entered a consolidative phase and then, on July 11, helped by an intervention episode, it staged an unprecedented recovery, with dollar/yen tumbling as much as 12.5%.
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Weekly Technical Outlook– USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD

USDJPY gives up its 2024 rally on recession fears; ISM services PMI next in focus AUDUSD sinks to 8-month low. Will the RBA policy decision come to the rescue? USDCAD loses momentum after 22-month high; Canadian employment due on Friday   ISM non-manufacturing PMI --> USDJPY Market expectations shifted from a soft landing to a hard landing after a disappointing ISM manufacturing survey coupled with poor jobs figures last week made investors think that the Fed has kept interes
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Could data open the door to an RBNZ cut next week? – Preview

Market in crisis mode after Friday’s US labour report An RNBZ rate cut could be on the cards if data weakens China’s problems hamper progress in the region Kiwi in desperate need of good data prints Markets in disarray With the market digesting last week’s events, especially Friday’s US labour market report that triggered discussions of a US recession, and the heightened probability for aggressive rate cuts by the Fed during 2024, the focus turns to the Asia-Pacific r
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Week Ahead – RBA and BoJ Summary of Opinions take center stage

RBA decides on policy as hike bets disappear BoJ Summary of Opinions awaited for more hike hints After Fed, dollar turns to ISM non-mfg PMI New Zealand and Canada jobs data also on tap   Will the RBA turn dovish? Following the BoJ, the Fed, and the BoE decisions this week, the central bank torch will next be passed to the RBA, which announces its decision on Tuesday.
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RBA meets as rate hike odds fade, aussie sinks after CPI data – Preview

RBA set to keep rates on hold despite elevated inflation But latest CPI report raises hope that price pressures are easing A dovish pivot on Tuesday (07:30 GMT) could further devastate the aussie Lack of progress The Reserve Bank of Australia has barely made any progress on getting inflation down in 2024, with the monthly CPI gauge standing higher in June than where it was in December.
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